30 Teams in 30 Days – Washington Nationals

There have been some great moments in sports over the last five years, there was the Cardinals World Series run, the Giants upsetting the Patriots in the Super Bowl… twice, VCU going first four to final four, but my favorite moment of the last five years still has to be on April 17th 2009, when Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman walked out on to the field with “NATINALS” written across the front of their jerseys, to this day, I still call them the Natinals. Anyways, let’s see how they did in 2011.
Washington Nationals
Record: 80-81 (rained out game not made up)
Finish: 3rd in NL East
Playoffs: N/A
Top Pitcher: Jordan Zimmerman 8-11, 3.18 ERA, 124 SO
Top Hitter: Michael Morse .303 AVG, 31 HR, 95 RBI
Manager: Davey Johnson
Important Off-season Acquisitions: Ryan Perry, Andres Blanco, Jason Michaels, Jeff Fulchino, Mike Cameron, Chad Tracy, Xavier Paul, Gio Gonzalez, Mark DeRosa, Brad Lidge, Chad Durbin, Edwin Jackson
Important Off-season Losses: Todd Coffey LAD, Alex Cora STL, Jonny Gomes OAK, Livan Hernandez HOU, Laynce Nix PHI, Ivan Rodriguez FA, Collin Balester DET

The Natinals had a pretty good season last year, finishing at 80-81. That may not sound great, but it was an 11.5 game improvement from 2010, and a 21.5 game improvement from 2009. They did this without having 2009 1st overall pick, Stephen Strasburg pitch until September, due to Tommy John surgery. Despite this, pitching was still their strength, finishing seventh in the league in ERA. They got great help from their Starting pitching, 6 of their 7 pitchers with 10 starts or more had an ERA under 4.05, Livan Hernandez was the only one over that mark with an ERA of 4.47, and he’s gone this year. Their offense did struggle throughout the year, finishing 27th in the league in batting average, and 24th in the league in runs. They didn’t get the production they wanted from Jayson Werth, as his batting average dropped .064 points, he had seven less home runs, 27 less RBI and 37 less Runs than he did in 2010, giving him a total of a .232 AVG, 20 HR, 58 RBI and 69 R.  However, Michael Morse was able to pick up his slack, with a breakthrough season, recording a .303 AVG, to go along with 31 HR and 95 RBI. Ryan Zimmerman, battled some injury problems, meaning Morse was really the only difference maker in the lineup last year. However, this year, if Morse can keep it up, Zimmerman can stay healthy and Jayson Werth can bounce back, this offense can greatly improve, and If 2nd year catcher Wilson Ramos and 3rd year shortstop Ian Desmond can improve, then the Natinals could become a top 15 offense, accompanied with a top 7 or 8 pitching unit, they could become a tough team in the NL East. Earlier today, the Natinals sent 2010 1st overall pick, Bryce Harper to AAA, so one can only assume that they want to keep him in the minors for one more full season to keep up his development. The Natinals made some confusing moves with their Starting Pitching, they acquired Edwin Jackson and Gio Gonzalez despite already having 6 potential starters in Jordan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, John Lannan, Chien-Ming Wang, Ross Detwiler and Tom Gorzelanny, so we’ll see what ends up happening there. They lost some pieces to their bench and added some pieces to their bench, but some of the bench players they added may be able to steal a spot in the lineup with a lackluster Washington offense. They lost Coffey and Balester from their bullpen, but with the acquisition of multiple relievers including Brad Lidge, who will most likely be the set-up man for Drew Storen, who put up amazing numbers in his first year as a closer, going 43/48 in save opportunities (89.6%). All in all, this team should be improved, and MAY potentially make a playoff run, with that 2nd wild card spot in play this year. However,  I ultimately see them falling a few games short, having one of, if not the toughest division in the league, with the improved Miami Marlins to go along with the Braves and the Phillies. However, in a few years, if they develop their players properly, they could become a force to be reckoned with.
Prediction
Record: 83-79
Finish: 4th in NL East
Playoffs: N/A
Top Pitcher: Jordan Zimmerman 12-11, 3.24 ERA, 143 SO
Top Hitter: Ryan Zimmerman .301, 25 HR, 93 RBI
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-Vernon Smells

30 Teams in 30 Days – Texas Rangers

The last 2 seasons for Rangers fans have to have been the most heart-breaking seasons to have ever existed. Losing in the World Series to the Giants in 2010, and to the Cardinals in 2011. I’ll let you know how I think they’ll do this year, but first, let’s recap 2011.
Texas Rangers
Record: 96-66
Finished: 1st in AL West
Playoffs: Lost in World Series……… again
Top Pitcher: C.J Wilson 16-7, 2.94 ERA, 206 SO
Top Hitter: Mike Napoli .320 AVG, 30 HR, 75 RBI, in just 113 games
Manager: Ron Washington
Important Acquisitions: Joe Nathan, Yu Darvish, Brad Hawpe
Important Losses: C.J Wilson LAA, Michael Gonzalez FA, Darren Oliver TOR, Matt Treanor LAD, Darren O’Day BAL

“In to right, well hit, back at the wall, it’s off the wall. 1 Run scores, Here comes Berkman. Freese has tied it. 7-7!!! Unbelievable” That moment still gives me chills, and it is probably one of the greatest sports moments in a long while, but Rangers fans don’t feel that way. It was their second straight trip to the World Series, and in 2011 it looked like they had it won…..twice. Right up until Freese hit a 2 out, 2 strike 2 run triple in the 9th to tie up the game. Then in the 10th the Rangers put up 2 more runs, but the Cards came back, including a 2 out, 2 strike, RBI single from Lance Berkman to tie up the game. In the next inning, the 11th, David Freese hit a walk-off home run to force a game 7, which the Cardinals promptly won. I cannot imagine the pain that Rangers fans must have felt. However, apart from those moments, last year was a great season for the Rangers. They won the AL West by 10 games, they made it to the World Series and they probably shoud have won it.  They had unbelievable production from the bats, they had a good bullpen and a lot of their young starters played surprisingly well. This season will be a much bigger question mark and will depend on a lot of things. They lost their star pitcher to the rival Angels, along with a few key pieces to their bullpen. The talent they gained has mystery written all over it. Starting with Yu Darvish, the Rangers paid a hefty sum for this Japanese pitcher, who has never played a game in the MLB, no one has any idea how effectively he’ll be able to pitch in the MLB. They also signed an aging Joe Nathan, after being one of the best closers in the league year after year, Nathan had Tommy John surgery, and missed the entire 2010 season, he then struggled in 2011, posting just 14 saves and a 4.84 ERA. I assume he was brought in to take over the closer role so that they can finally move Netali Feliz to the Starting rotation, something they’ve been talking about doing since he took over the closer role in 2010. That move right there adds 2 BIG questions: Will Nathan be able to regain his form? and how will Netali Feliz fare as a starter?  Their bullpen has lost some major pieces and I don’t expect it to be nearly as good then in years past, plus their rotation is still very young and missing it’s star (C.J Wilson), so we have no clue how good it will be. We also don’t know how they’ll be with the bats. We know they’ll be good, but how good? Can Hamilton rebound after an injury plagued season? Mike Napoli, who if he had of played the whole season was on pace for 43 Home Runs and 107 RBI, to go along with a .320 AVG. However, this came out of nowhere, so how do we know that he can repeat? Michael Young, who’s now 35 years old, hit a whopping .338 last season (the highest of his career), can he come even close to putting up the same numbers this year? Not to mention, the Angels now have a very good team and will be competing with the Rangers for the AL West. This is by far the hardest prediction I’ve had to make so far. I feel they could range anywhere from 80 Wins to 100, so I guess I’ll go smack dab in the middle and say they’ll be a 90 Win ball club, sacrificing the Division, but still taking one of the two Wild Card spots.

Prediction
Record: 90-72
Finish: 2nd in AL West, 1st in Wild Card Race
Playoffs: Eliminated in ALDS
Top Pitcher: Yu Darvish 16-8 3.14 ERA, 226 SO
Top Hitter: Josh Hamilton .318 AVG 31 HR 109 RBI
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-Vernon Smells

Does Good Pitching Really Beat Good Hitting?

For years the question has been asked, how do you make the best MLB Team, Pitching or Hitting. Typically you’ll hear lots of the same, “good pitching beats good hitting” but is it necessarily true? We here at Critics From The Couch are going to go through deep analysis using last years stats, we’ll also look at the effect defense and stolen bases have on a teams W’s to show you the best way to build a ball club.

Let’s start with pitching, we’re going to take the top 8 teams in various pitching stats and use as a complicated point system based on how they did in the season/playoffs(if applicable) based on where they are on the list.

ERA Leaders               WHIP                           SO                                 Fewest BB
Philadelphia 9.54           Philadelphia 9.54         Atlanta 7.96                   Philadelphia 9.54
San Francisco 7.43       Tampa Bay 8.37          San Francisco 7.43      Seattle 5.80
San Diego 5.91              Milwaukee 8.76            Philadelphia 9.01          Chi. White Sox 6.59
Atlanta 7.14                    San Francisco 6.90     L.A Dodgers 6.62          Milwaukee 8.46
L.A Dodgers 6.36           Texas 8.41                   Milwaukee 8.16             Arizona 7.75
L.A Angles 6.37               Atlanta 6.58                 Chi. Cubs 5.26             St. Louis 8.17
Washington 5.72             L.A Dodgers 5.85        NY Yankees 7.39         Texas 7.82
Tampa Bay 6.68             Seattle 4.55                  Chi. White Sox 5.37     Cleveland 5.43
TOTAL: 55.15                TOTAL: 58.96              Total: 57.19                 Total: 59.56
Team ERA proves a       Team WHIP proves      Team SO proves a      Fewest BB proves
value of 55.15 Pts.          a value of 58.96 Pts      value of 57.19 Pts.      a value of 59.56 Pts

As you can tell, WHIP and BB have a big effect on a team, where ERA really doesn’t seem to be as important as people think, let’s see how it compares to hitting.

AVG                            HR                                RBI                               SLG
Texas 9.60                 NY Yankees 9.19          Boston 8.06                  Boston 8.06
Boston 7.78                Texas 9.30                    NY Yankees 8.89         Texas 9.30
Detroit 8.66                 Boston 7.51                  Texas 9.01                    NY Yankees 8.09
Kansas City 5.69        Baltimore 5.54               Detroit 8.37                  Detroit 8.37
St. Louis 8.45              Toronto 6.25                 St. Louis 8.45               Milwaukee 8.16
NY Mets 5.70               Milwaukee 7.87             Kansas City 5.26         St. Louis 8.17
NY Yankees 7.39         Cincinnati 5.61              Toronto 5.75                Kansas City 5.04
Milwaukee 7.27            Atlanta 6.04                   Arizona 6.88                Arizona 6.88
Total: 60.54                 Total: 57.31                  Total: 60.67                Total: 62.07
Team AVG proves       Team HR proves          Team RBI proves a      Team SLG proves a
a value of 60.54 Pts.     a value of 57.31 Pts.     value of 60.67 Pts.      value of 62.07 Pts.

WOW, Hitting seems to have a serious advantage over Pitching, look at SLG%, who would have thought that would be so important. So here it would seem that maybe hitting is more important. Keep in mind though, this is just from one season(last season) and we only used 4 stat categories for each, but based on this small sample, maybe teams should start building more around hitting than pitching. Let’s take a look at how defense and swiped bags compare.

FPCT                             DER                            SB:                             SBPCT
Philadelphia 9.54           Tampa Bay 8.65          Boston 8.06                Florida 6.44
Tampa Bay 8.37            Cincinnati 6.83             San Diego 6.13           Houston 4.84
Chi. White Sox 6.59       San Diego 5.91           Chi. White Sox 6.59    NY Mets 6.41
Atlanta 7.14                     L.A Angels 6.90           Houston 4.50             Philadelphia 8.69
L.A Dodgers 6.36            Philadelphia 8.38        Atlanta 6.86                Chi. White Sox 6.10
Cincinnati 5.86                Texas 8.12                  NY Yankees 7.69       Tampa Bay 6.74
Arizona 7.17                    Boston 6.39                 L.A Angles 6.11         L.A Angels 6.11
L.A Angels 5.84               Arizona 6.88                San Francisco 5.84   Atlanta 6.04
Total: 56.87                    Total: 58.07                Total: 51.78               Total: 51.37
Team Fielding                 Team Defensive          Team SB proves a     Team SBPCT
Percentage proves          Efficiency Rating          value of 51.78 Pts.     proves a value of
a value of 56.87 Pts.        proves a value of                                             51.37 Pts.
                                         58.07 Pts.

As we all know it takes all components of the game to build a winning team, but based off of these findings, on a very very small sample of research, it would seem that hitting is the most important, where pitching and defense seem a little less important. Stolen Bases on this list seem to have no affect at all on how good a team is. So, does good pitching really beat good hitting? Maybe, but good hitting will definitely win you games.

-Vernon Smells (Kalib Tilley)