NFL Week 17- Playoff Picture, Scenarios, and Predictions

The NFL postseason looms near, but there’s still one more week in the regular season we must get through before all is decided. There’s still a lot that’s yet to be resolved. The 6 teams that will be representing the AFC in the playoffs have already been determined, however there’s still battles happening for seeding and a 1st round bye. In the NFC, just  4 teams have clinched a spot in the postseason and there’s five teams still contesting for 2 spots. Perhaps most important, however, is that despite trailing 39 points in the championship game, my fantasy team (Don’t Get Chad Mad) won’t go down without a fight and plan on giving it all they’ve got.

In this piece, I will examine each team yet to be eliminated from playoff contention. I’ll recap their season, give you their playoff scenario and give you my prediction.

All stats found on NFL.com

Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals will be finishing with the 2nd Wild Card spot in the playoffs, however who they play has yet to be determined. Coming off their surprising postseason appearance in the 2011-2012 season, the Bengals finished their first four games of the season pretty strong, going 3-1. They looked poised for another decent year. However, in their next four games, the Bengals didn’t look as strong, losing all 4 (including losses to Miami and Cleveland), they were then sitting with a 3-5 record going into week 10. Be that as it may, the Bengals were able to pull their socks up and win 6 of their next 7 games (which included wins against the Giants and Steelers). My prediction for the Bengals is obviously the 6th seed in the AFC, because that’s already been determined. Watch out for the Bengals in the postseason though, I think they have the ability to beat a team like the Ravens or the Texans under the right circumstances.

Indianapolis Colts: The Colts will be finishing with the 5 seed in the AFC, but like the Bengals, who they play has still has yet to be determined. After posting the worst record in the NFL last season, expectations were extremely low for this Colts team, they’ve more than exceeded them to this point, posting 5 times as many wins through their first 15 games this season as they had all of last year. Now, I’m going to go on a mini tirade here about the Colts, because I believe they, along with Luck, may be getting just a little bit too much credit for the team’s success this year. Now don’t get me wrong, I believe Luck and the Colts have a very bright future, that being said, neither of them deserve the praise or results they’ve been getting for this season. Starting with Luck, his completion percentage of just over 54% ranks him 33rd among 34 eligible QB’s, and he’s tied with Brees for most interceptions in the league (18). People could argue that he’s 7th in the league in passing yards (4,183), but that’s only because he’s thrown the ball 599 times. If you look in depth, he’s only averaging 7.0 yards per attempt which ranks him just 17th in the league, his touchdown numbers aren’t incredible either, look for a rookie QB he’s had a good season, however, he’s been discussed in MVP talks, which is ridiculous, he shouldn’t even be rookie of the year (I’d rank RG3 and Wilson ahead of him). The biggest argument in favor of Luck is that he took a 2-14 team to a 10-5 team, first of all, team achievements should be in a completely different category than individual awards. Secondly, the team is extremely lucky to be at this record based on the closeness in the score of most of their games. Lastly, in my opinion the team has not improved this much because Luck has been so good, but because Curtis Painter was so bad, his stats were atrocious, he had twice as many turnovers as he had touchdowns, and when Orlovsky took over, the team wasn’t half bad, I along with most would probably still consider Orvlosky a below average QB, but he won 2 games in just 5 starts with the club. Now to speak about the team, the Colts are extremely lucky to be where they are, maybe it’s because of inspiration they’ve received from Chuck Pagano or whatever else, their talent and even their play on the field does not match their record this season. The Colts have -46 Net points (points for minus points against), of all the other teams who have already clinched a playoff spot in the NFL, the lowest Net Points is +60, you can’t tell me there wasn’t a little luck involved in their record. They have twice as many wins as losses, yet they are being outscored by 46 points. Another problem I have with this Colts team is that they haven’t beaten an AFC team .500 or better all year, now they’ve only played 2 games against AFC teams that were .500 or better. However, this shows us their ease of schedule, as they’ve already played 9 games against teams under .500, and still weren’t able to post a positive Net Points. The Colts will finish with the 5th seed, but will be blown out in the first round of the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens: Even when the Ravens were a 9-2 team, I didn’t believe they were that strong, they proved me right by losing their next three games, they just aren’t complete enough, they have huge injuries on defense, Flacco can’t throw the ball on the road, and they refuse to give the ball to Ray Rice. Best thing that could happen to them is to play the Colts in the Wild Card Round, play the Texans in the Divisional round and hope the have an off night, and then hope that either the Broncos or Patriots miss their flight. They will have the 4th seed in the AFC unless they beat the Bengals, and the Dolphins defeat the Patriots, even though the Pats will probably win, they should throw the game to the Bengals just to make sure they get that Colts matchup in the 1st round. My prediction is they will finish with the 4th seed but won’t go far in the playoffs.

New England Patriots: In my opinion, the Patriots are the best team in the NFL, they have 4 losses, however they were all by really small margins. The offense is absolutely unstoppable, and the defense is much improved from last year, a big reason for their lead leaguing 190 Net Points. They should have Gronk back for the playoffs, I’m really hoping for a Patriots-Broncos AFC championship, it would just be terrific football. The Patriots still have a chance at a bye, they would need a win and a loss from either the Broncos or Texans, and a loss from both would get them the 1st seed. I don’t see the Broncos or Texans losing, so the Pats will probably have the 3rd seed and play the Bengals in the first round.

Denver Broncos: The Broncos may be the second best team in the NFL, I’d only put the Patriots ahead of them because of the schedules, the Broncos are in the worst division in the NFL and have posted just a 2-3 record against teams above .500, compared to the Pats 4-2 record in those games. The Broncos look extremely strong and are absolutely wiping the floor with their competition at this point, the defense is unstoppable, their passing game’s unstoppable and, and even without McGahee, their running game has been unstoppable. This is mostly due to the Broncos underachieving former first round draft pick, Knowshon Moreno. The only AFC team that I think can beat them is the Patriots, and they should have no troubles beating the Chiefs this week and will probably finish with the 2nd seed and a bye.

Houston Texans: The Texans are an enigma of a team. They can come out and destroy any team on any given day and on other occasions they look like a practice squad. Such as when they were destroyed by the Packers, Patriots and Vikings, and almost defeated by teams like the Jaguars and Lions. The Texans are definitely going to forget to show up to a game in the playoffs, and their whole season will come crashing down. They could finish with either the first, second or third seed. A win gets them the first seed, a loss and a Broncos or Patriots win gets them the second seed, and a loss accompanied with both a Patriots win and a Broncos win drops them to the third seed. They should beat the Colts and secure that first seed, but who knows, maybe it will be “one of those games”.

New York Giants: Boy, did the Giants ever blow this one. After sitting at 6-2 after week 8, and having a stranglehold on the entire division, the Giants have found a way to go just 2-5 since, and virtually eliminate themselves from the playoffs. The Giants always either get really hot or really cold at the end of the season. When they get really hot, they can win the Super Bowl, as they’ve already done on two occasions since 2006, however when they get cold, they can mess up their entire season. It’s sad to think that the G-men have done this to themselves considering that they’d have a much better chance to win the Super Bowl than at least 2 of the teams that are going to make it. Don’t worry Giants fans, this isn’t the end of an era, you’ll just go silent for a few years then come out of nowhere to win the Super Bowl again in 2015, it’s a fact. Now, I’ve been talking as if the Giants have  already been eliminated from playoff contention, they haven’t technically but it’s going to be pretty hard for them to sneak in. They need to beat the Eagles, they will also need the Redskins to beat the Cowboys, the Packers to beat the Vikings, and the Lions to beat the Bears, maybe 3 of these 4 results could happen but I can’t see the Giants getting that lucky. Nevertheless, I would like to say that the Giants have had one of the hardest schedules in the NFL to this point, but a great team should have been able to overcome that and make the playoffs. I think the Giants will finish 7th in the NFC.

Dallas Cowboys: These guys have somewhat secretly stuck around in the NFC East all year, and will be playing for the division championship this Sunday. Romo has been playing terrifically as of late and will surely be a big factor in this matchup, along with Dez Bryant, who I tried to acquire in my fantasy league in week 10, I decided not to give what was being asked of me, boy do I regret it, as since then, Bryant has been one of the best receivers in the NFL. The scenario’s easy for the Cowboys, win and you’re in, lose and go home. I have not been a big believer in the Cowboys all year, especially after almost losing to the Browns (who are a better team than their record indicates, but still a team the Cowboys should handle easily). However, the Cowboys surprised me with wins against the Steelers and Bengals, this proved to me one of two things, either the Cowboys are better than I thought, or the AFC is even worse than I thought. They were unable to beat the Saints, but they didn’t get humiliated against them either. I feel as if the Cowboys may be able to win this game, however there are two factors that stop me from picking them, the first is based on a prediction I made a while back that I will explain in the Redskins section, the second is the fact that they are the Cowboys and they will find a way to lose. Due to this, I’m predicting a Cowboys loss, and a a 9th place finish in the NFC.

Chicago Bears: After a terrific 7-1 start to the season, the Bears have fallen to the point where they no longer control their own destiny. They’d lost 5 of 6 before their win last week, and Bears fans are looking for someone to blame, as a result, Lovie Smith’s name’s been thrown around as a coach who could potentially be fired. I don’t think that’s deserved, however, I can’t quite figure out what the problem with this team is. It’s certainly not the defense, and despite the struggles, if you told me I could have Cutler, Forte, and Marshall on my team, I’d take it. Maybe it has to do with the O-Line, which for the 4th season in a row, has given up more sacks than at least 27 other NFL teams. For the Bears to make the postseason, they’ll need a win against the Lions along with a Packers win against the Vikings, meaning the Bears will have to cheer for the Packers this week, the humor in that is unbelievable. I do believe the Bears will be able to hold on for a win, and watch their arch nemesis Packers win to give the Bears the 6th seed in the playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings have put together a pretty nice season for their fans behind an unbelievable Adrian Peterson and their stellar defense. AP of course just 207 yards back of the single season rushing records, but the Vikings can’t be thinking about that this weekend against the Packers, if the situation calls for them to force feed the ball to Peterson (which I really hope it does, my fantasy team needs it), then do it. However, if it doesn’t call for that, then throw the ball, they need to believe in Ponder, who’s quietly put together a decent season. To make the postseason the Vikings need to win, they could still make it if they don’t win, but it’s unlikely, they would need the Redskins to beat the Cowboys, the Lions to beat the Bears, and the Giants to beat the Eagles. If the Packers weren’t playing for anything, I think the Vikings may have been able to pull off this W, but with the Packers playing for a bye, I just can’t see it happening. I predict the Vikings to finish 8th in the NFC.

Seattle Seahawks: There was a lot of excitement surrounding the Seahawks start the season after a terrific preseason by one 5’11″ 3rd round rookie QB. Throughout the year, Wilson hadn’t done anything incredible but he continually playing decent football. With the combination of Lynch and that great defense, the Seahawks were able to keep themselves in it. Over the last 3 weeks, we have begun to see that great QB that we saw in the preseason, who can not only beat you with his legs, but with his arm as well. Adding to that, the incredible play of Lynch and the defense, have made the Seahawks absolutely unstoppable, outscoring their opponents 150-30, and really cementing themselves as a contender in the NFC. This is a young team who’s going to be really good for years, but I can’t see them coming up with big road wins that they would need in the playoffs this year. The Seahawks could still win the division and even get a bye. To win the division they will need a W against the Rams, along with a 49ers loss by the hands of the Arizona Cardinals. To get a bye, they will need both of those things to happen along with a Vikings win over the Packers, this would be huge for the Seahawks because the higher seed you have, the longer you get to play at home, where the Seahawks are a perfect 7-0, compared to a 3-5 record on the road. I predict they will win in week 17, however so will the 49ers and the Packers, so they will finish with the 5th seed in the NFC.

Washington Redskins: I don’t like to brag or anything (yes I do), but when the Redskins were 4-6, I told my fellow CTFC writer, Simple Jack, that the Skins would run the table and win the division, he laughed in my face, as he claimed that “the Redskins could never pass the Giants”, I also told him RG3 would win the MVP, but let’s not mention that, even though I believe he’s definitely been a top 5 QB this season.  After starting the season 3-6, there was some controversy at the head coach position, Mike Shanahan may or may not have implied that the team had given up on the year, maybe the team wanted to prove something to him, as they haven’t lost since that incident, winning 6 in a row to move to 9-6. The Redskins are playing for the division title this weekend against Dallas, but they can still win a wild card spot if they lose, though they would need some help, they would need the Packers to beat the Vikings, and the Lions to beat the Bears, but the better option would be to just beat the Cowboys on Sunday night. I do predict the Redskins to beat the Cowboys, mostly because of the prediction I made 5 weeks ago, however, I doubt they will go very far in the postseason if they make it.

San Francisco 49ers: When the 9ers are playing their best football, they’re the best team in the NFL, the problem is they let their weaknesses show way too often, like last week against the Seahawks, or in the second half a couple weeks ago against the Patriots. They obviously have a terrific defense, and an awesome run game. The inconsistency comes from the quarterback position, as despite pretty good play from Kaepernick (who started for my Madden 13 Connected Careers team for 4 years before he even took over in San Fran) and even Smith when he was playing, they seem to just go really cold from time to time, and it lets the opposition possess the ball a lot, and score points in bunches. The 49ers, just like the Seahawks can finish with either the 2nd, 3rd or 5th seed in the NFC, with a win against Arizona they would win the division, with a loss to the Cards accompanied with a Seattle win, they will have the 5th seed, and with a win along with a Packers loss, they will have the 2nd seed and a first round bye. I predict a win for the 49ers and a 3rd seed in the playoffs.

Green Bay Packers: The Packers have very quietly put up a very respectable 11-4 record this year and they currently hold the 2nd spot in the NFC standings. The Packers’ season looked to be in trouble after the notorious missed call against Seattle, and the blown halftime lead against the Indianapolis Colts. After that 2-3 start, the Packers have won 9 of their last 10, and put themselves in a position to earn a first round bye behind another very strong season by Aaron Rodgers and a surprisingly decent defensive core Their defense has been good against both the run and the pass. If they win their game against the Vikings the Packers will secure that second seed and a first round bye, however, if they are defeated, and either the 49ers or Seahawks win, the Packers will be left with the 3rd seed. I predict a Packers win in week 17 in Minnesota giving them the bye. Their passing game is just too strong for the Vikings defense. You heard it from me, watch out for the Packers this postseason, they could put together something special.

Atlanta Falcons: Oh, the Atlanta Falcons, the Falcons have the best record in the NFL and are still not considered a top 5 team by many around the league. I was part of “the doubters” for most of the year, until i saw that blowout they pulled off against New York Giants. The Giants are not an easy opponent, especially not when their fighting for their lives, and the Falcons shut them down; handling them as if they were the Chiefs. Their defense is great, their passing game is great, and between Turner, Jacquizz, and Snelling their running game’s been up there among the top in league as well. One of the arguments constantly made against the Falcons is that yes, they have been one of the best home teams in the league for years, but they need to prove they can win on the road. My response is that 6-2 on the road isn’t bad, and also, because they secured home field, they wil be playing at home every game they play in the postseason until the Super Bowl. Maybe the biggest argument against the Falcons, however, is that they haven’t proved they can win in the playoff. I cannot fully argue against this, however they’ve only played 3 postseason games in the Matt Ryan era, and all 3 of the teams they’ve played against went on to play in the Super Bowl. It may have just be a case of “wrong place, wrong time”. Whether the Falcons win or lose in week 17 is irrelevant as they’ll probably rest many of their players. The Falcons will finish with the 1st seed in the postseason, and I’m telling you, don’t take them too lightly.

-Vernon Smells (Kalib Tilley)

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Peyton Manning To Denver And What Does This Mean For The Rest Of The NFL

As of today, former Colts QB, Peyton Manning will be a Denver Bronco, now for Denver this means the obvious, they’re getting a future hall of famer QB who will give them the best shot to go to a Super Bowl. Now obviously there is some doubt with his neck, but I think it’s fair to believe that all is right with Mr. Manning. Now seeing as Denver could make it to the second round of the NFL playoffs with the Messiah Tim Tebow, theres no doubt in anybody’s mind that they could make the playoffs with Manning. Denver’s defense on average gave up 19 points per game last year, there’s no doubt in my mind that Manning could put up more.

Now for the more interesting topic, what happens to the other teams that were in the mix?

The San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are in a strange predicament. They were the surprise of the NFL season, making it all the way to NFC championship game. This in turn, took away the “bust” label on Alex Smith, but now Alex Smith is a free agent and seems to think he deserves more, so although the 49ers have signed receivers Mario Manningham and Randy Moss, they now have no QB to throw them the ball.

The Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals will leave this sweepstakes unscalled pretty much. Last season they traded for Eagles QB Kevin Kolb, granted he didn’t do “squat”, but maybe this season it will be different. They also still have all-pro wideout Larry Fitzgerald.

The Tennessee Titans

The Titans gave it a good go trying to sign Manning. They pulled the “you played here in college” card, but that didn’t work. So now for the Titans are stuckwith another aging QB (Matt Hasslebeck), although young QB, Jake Locker didn’t look half bad last year. 2010-2011 NFL Rushing leader, Chris Johnson had a lack lustre year in the 2011-12 season. If Johnson can improve they could give the now Mario Williams-less Texans a run for their money.

The Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are definitely in a panic mode. They finished with a record of 6-10 (not too bad considering they started off 0-7), unfortunately, since they were able to win those 6 games, they now sit in the 8th position when it comes to the draft. The Dolphins are QBless as Chad Henne singed with Jags and Matt Flynn signed with the seahawks, so all signs point to the fact that Miami will try to draft Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill.

However, there is a subplot to the Miami situation. Seeing as Denver now has Manning, they will try to trade Tebow, and with the Jags already getting Henne, some believe Miami will trade for Tebow, seeing as he’s Florida’s favourite son.

The Tebow Situation

As previously mentioned Tebow could go to Miami. Now another team I could see him going to is San Fran, With receivers like Manningham and Moss, Tebow could just launch the ball up to them. Not to mention, a Frank Gore and Tim Tebow backfield could be lethal. Also we can’t forget that former QB Jim Harbaugh is there coach, so he could show Tebow a thing or two.

The Jaguars have been rumoured to be in the mix still, but I don’t see why the Jaguars would sign Henne and then trade for Tebow. The Patriots have also been in the mix, which I surprisingly understand. Now, the Patriots aren’t going to be trading Tom Brady or anything, but Belichick is an innovator, so he would try to find a way to fit Tebow in.

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-McFultz

 

Conference Championship Picks

Since this site is only a few days old I haven’t been able to report on my favourite sport, FOOTBALL! I was unable to give my TEEEEEEEBBBBOOOOOWWWWWW rant, my report on how Peyton Manning is a shoe in for the 2011 MVP award or how in week 4 I said San Francisco wasn’t all that good. Thank God I never posted that. So let’s get down to business.

AFC Championship Game:

The AFC Championship game sees the New England Patriots (number one seed) playing the Baltimore Ravens (number two seed). This game will come down to one matchup: Joe Flacco vs The New England defence. The New England defence had the 2nd worst defence of all time. Now we know that Tom Brady will have a tough time with the Ravens D but he will probably score 24 points. So this leaves us with Mr Flacco. With the help of one of the best running backs in the league (Ray Rice), all he’ll have to do is score more than 24 points against the 2nd worst defence of ALL TIME!!

Pick: Baltimore

NFC Championship Game:

Th NFC Championship game pits The San Francisco 49ers (second seed) against The New York Giants (fourth seed). This game is an interesting one because, if New York wins they’ll just be adding to what is already a pretty crazy run. But if the 49ers win it will almost be enough to destroy the “bust” label that surrounds quarterback Alex Smith. It will also be the second time in three years that a first year coach (Jim Harbaugh), made the Super Bowl; the last being now fired Colts coach Jim Caldwell. Personally, I just can’t see Alex Smith putting up the amount of points he put up last week against the Saints. The Giants have a very good D and they won’t be embarrassed by the 49ers. All Eli Manning should have to do to bring his G-Men to the Super Bowl is score over 14 points.

Pick: The New York Giants

Staff Picks:

Vernon Smells: New England to face San Francisco in the Super Bowl.

Harry: Giants vs Ravens (like yours truly).

Kipling Ronald: A repeat of the 2007 Super Bowl, Giants vs Patriots.

Gonzo: N/A

 

-McFultz